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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/22 11:57
Mixed Prices Keep Volume Light
Light activity is seen in all markets with traders focusing on potential
renewed activity early next week. Prices are mixed with very limited direction
seen Friday morning.
By Rick Kment
Narrowly mixed trade is seen Friday with most traders taking a step back and
observing following a wild market shift through the holiday-shortened week.
Live cattle and hog futures are mixed in a narrow range as traders continue to
focus on very limited market direction over the weekend. Corn futures are
higher in sluggish trade. March corn futures are 3/4 cent higher. Stock markets
are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 170 points higher with Nasdaq up 54
With the exception of February live cattle, which are in delivery and soon
to expire, limited activity is seen through the entire live cattle complex.
Prices are mixed in a narrow range after the early week volatility is allowing
for some end of the week positioning by those traders who have stuck around.
This could leave markets quiet through the end of the complex, although traders
will be watching the cold storage report and cattle on feed reports for
direction of markets next week. Cash markets are still untraded midday Friday
but dressed bids are starting to improve. Live bids are holding at $123 per
cwt, while dressed bids have moved to $203 in Nebraska per cwt. Asking prices
are at $128 and higher live and $205 to $207 dressed. Trade may not be seen
until around the time or after cattle on feed report is released. Boxed Beef
cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.78 higher (select) and up $1.32 per cwt
(choice) with light movement of 45 total loads reported (21 loads of choice
cuts, 5 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).
Narrow trading ranges are indicating a quiet trading session in feeder
cattle markets with very limited direction seen in both grain and cattle
markets through the end of the week. Most contracts are holding single-digit
market shifts with traders trying to assess longer term direction and the
potential for future moves in beef values.
Sluggish trade is seen through the entire hog complex Friday morning with
mixed prices leaving markets generally quiet. April futures are holding a 35
cent loss, moving to $56.60 per cwt, while all other contracts are stuck in a
mixed range from 20 cents lower to 35 cents higher. Limited trade is expected
to be seen over the rest of the trading session with uncertain market direction
moving back into the complex next week. Cash prices are higher on the National
Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added $0.90 at
$47.24 per cwt with the range from $44.00 to $47.85 on 5,906 head reported
sold. Cash prices higher on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report.
The weighted average price added $0.46 at $46.48 per cwt with the range from
$45.00 to $46.75 on 1,416 head reported sold. Pork carcass values slipped late
in the week, with prices falling $0.02 per cwt at $61.21 per cwt with 210 loads
traded. Lean hog index for 2/20 is $54.06, down $0.07, with a projected two-day
index is $53.65, down $0.41.
Rick Kment can be reached at email@example.com
Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
No daily commentary available
March beans finished up 8 ½ , March corn up 4 ¾ , and March wheat up 5 ¾. News today about the Chinese pledging to buy large quantities of Ag products including corn and wheat rallied the markets. Beans were able to get back above the major moving averages before settling just below the 50 DMA at 911 ½. Corn found resistance at the 50 DMA but was able to settle above short term 10 day moving average. The market is getting excited about the possible trade deal and that there are some specific things being addressed. The two groups are working on a memorandum or understanding for a trade agreement (written agreement). As always, devil is in the details, exactly what, how much, and when is still up for debate. Initial numbers getting thrown around were that China would buy an additional $30B of US ag products. USDA released estimates for corn acres in 2019 to be 92M, Beans at 85M and wheat at 47M with no big surprises.