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This market commentary is for informational purposes only. The views and opinions offered in the report are solely those of Bunge Limited and its subsidiaries ("Bunge"). Bunge is not a futures broker and this is not an offer to buy or sell any commodity or futures contract. The information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Persons acting on any information contained in this commentary are responsible for their own actions.
Small reversal in beans after yesterday’s bearish
performance on the back of bearish US/China trade sentiment and macro factors.
Recent strengthening of the dollar has led to pressure on US ag commodity
prices. While both the Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real have reacted to this,
their behavior has not been uniform, as the peso continues to weaken and the
real is maintaining some strength vs the dollar. See charts below. The
sentiment regarding the US/China trade talks suggest they are at the same
standstill that they have been for a while. A lot of emphasis still remains on
forced IP transfers and Chinese domestic subsidies. Reports yesterday indicated
that the Chinese trade representatives offered to end their domestic subsidy
practices but would not shed any light on any detail as to how; this seemed to
be interpreted by the US counterparts as an empty offer. International
forecasts for Brazil seem unchanged for the most part, with showers expected
for the next week and a half over Brazil ag areas and below normal
temperatures. Very recently Argentina has been experiencing dry weather, but
6-10 day forecasts are calling for above normal rain in the north and below
normal rain in the south. Nopa will release its Jan crush data today, with the
average market guess for crush at 169.6 mbu.
Export sales flash:
205,744 MT of corn sold for delivery to unknown destinations
during the 2018/19 marketing year.Have a nice day.
March beans finished up 8 ½ , March corn up 4 ¾ , and March wheat up 5 ¾. News today about the Chinese pledging to buy large quantities of Ag products including corn and wheat rallied the markets. Beans were able to get back above the major moving averages before settling just below the 50 DMA at 911 ½. Corn found resistance at the 50 DMA but was able to settle above short term 10 day moving average. The market is getting excited about the possible trade deal and that there are some specific things being addressed. The two groups are working on a memorandum or understanding for a trade agreement (written agreement). As always, devil is in the details, exactly what, how much, and when is still up for debate. Initial numbers getting thrown around were that China would buy an additional $30B of US ag products. USDA released estimates for corn acres in 2019 to be 92M, Beans at 85M and wheat at 47M with no big surprises.